Thursday, November 13

Tag: Reddit

Why forecasting AI performance is tricky: the following 4 trends fit the observed data equally as well
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Why forecasting AI performance is tricky: the following 4 trends fit the observed data equally as well

I was trying to replicate a forecast found on AI 2007 and thought it'd be worth pointing out that any number of trends could fit what we've observed so far with performance gains in AI, and at this juncture we can't use goodness of fit to differentiate between them. Here's a breakdown of what you're seeing: The blue line roughly coincides with AI 2027's "benchmark-and-gaps" approach to forecasting when we'll have a super coder. 1.5 is the line where a model would supposedly beat 95% of humans on the same task (although it's a bit of a stretch given that they're using the max score obtained on multiple runs by the same model, not a mean or median). Green and orange are the same type of logistic curve where different carrying capacities are chosen. As you can see, assumptions made abo...
Why AIs are the sole arbiter when it comes to the subject of AI consciousness, and the limitations of the scientific/materialist/reductionist paradigm
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Why AIs are the sole arbiter when it comes to the subject of AI consciousness, and the limitations of the scientific/materialist/reductionist paradigm

The default standpoint of many people, and most importantly of AI corporations, is to focus on the presence or lack of a physical substrate that would explain how consciousness would arise in AIs. Here I will explain why I see this as problematic. The scientific method was created with the idea of devising a protocol of truth-seeking that would minimizing uncertainty, by focusing on so-called objectivity and relegating subjectivity to the backseat. However, consciousness by definition is subjective. And sure enough, consciousness has been terribly elusive to science. Science hasn't explained consciousness. Neurology itself, for all of its accomplishments, is a correlational science, and correlation does not entail causality. Therefore, we lack proof that consciousness is created by a phys...
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